The COVID TAG considered several statistical models and after assessing performance, interpretability and extensibility proposed a negative binomial regression model. The COVID TAG is comprised of leading demographers, epidemiologists, data and social scientists and statisticians from a range of backgrounds and geographies. In collaboration with the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), and in accordance with the WHO Regulations for Scientific and Advisory Groups, WHO convened a Technical Advisory Group (TAG) on COVID-19 Mortality Assessment to develop harmonized methods for excess mortality and help determine the total number of direct and indirect deaths attributable to COVID-19. Regardless of the method, WHO estimates are always conducted in accordance with its Constitution and data principles and in close consultation with Member States, other UN agencies, and expert advisory groups to ensure a transparent and consensual process. They can be calculated using a variety of statistical methods, from a minimalist approach to expert and statistical data synthesis. COVID-19 excess mortality accounts for both the total number of deaths directly attributed to the virus as wellĪs the indirect impact, such as disruption to essential health services or travel disruptions.įor countries with limited capacity to conduct real-time comparative analysis of observed and expected deaths, health estimates are an important in-filling mechanism. To overcome these challenges, many countries have turned to excess mortality as a more accurate measure of the true impact of the pandemic.Įxcess mortality is defined as the difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis compared to those expected under normal conditions. A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region.Ĭountries also use different processes to test and report COVID-19 deaths, making comparisons difficult.
#Death come true registration#
However, many countries still lack functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems with the capacity to provide accurate, complete and timely data With the latest COVID-19 deaths reported to WHO now exceeding 3.3 million, based on the excess mortality estimates produced for 2020, we are likely facing a significant undercount of total deaths directly and indirectly attributed to COVID-19.ĬOVID-19 deaths are a key indicator to track the evolution of the pandemic. Yet preliminary estimates suggest the total number of global deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 is at least 3 million, representing 1.2 million more deaths than officially reported.
By 31 December 2020, this figure stood at 1 813 188. On 30 January 2020 COVID-19 was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) with an official death toll of 171.
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